EU adjusts to a post-Brexit world

There is no doubt that the departure of the United Kingdom has shaken the European Union to the core.

Five years ago the complacent bureaucracy in Brussels was utterly confident Brexit would never happen. Three years ago, with the Brexit vote in place and leave negotiations under way, hubris was replaced by panic.

There was then a belief that the UK’s actions would be followed by others: Grexit (Greece) and Polexit (Poland) were widely tipped as the front-runners. Right-wing anti-EU movements in France and Germany were energised.

The EU’s arch foe, Nigel Farage was confidently predicting the EU would collapse and Europe would “revert to sovereign nations trading among themselves”.

Today the mood has changed again. The UK’s drawn-out and chaotic exit has given critics on the continent pause. No-one is serious about following Britain out of the door anymore, and even the most trenchant critics are talking about reform rather than dismantlement.

It is reform that is occupying the minds both of senior EU officials and leaders of member nations. The changes being considered take in foreign affairs, business and defence — and whether the bloc is ready to resume enlargement with applicant countries in the Balkans.

There is a new realism pervading the capitals of the continent, as highlighted by French President Emmanuel Macron who is calling for “a renewal of the European approach — we no longer live in the world of the 1990s”. 

Following Brexit and the fact that in Donald Trump, the EU faces the first United President who is openly hostile to it, there is a feeling that Brussels’ foreign policy must toughen up to meet the changed circumstances.

For years it has relied on soft power diplomacy to spread its influence in the world, basing it on economic and development aid (as an example the EU is one of the largest aid donors in the Pacific region, after Australia) as well as promoting cultural ties and human rights.

That is no longer seen as sufficient in a more hard-edged, aggressive world. As EU Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security, Josep Borrell said recently: “We Europeans must adjust our mental maps to deal with the world as it is, not as we hoped it would be.  

“To avoid being the losers in today’s US-China competition, we must relearn the language of power."

That has revived talk of some form of EU defence force, possibly drawn from the ranks of member countries’ militaries, ready to come together at short notice to deal with a crisis.

That will be challenging, especially without the UK’s undoubted military clout, and with a budget already under strain from other areas, such as the Green Deal Project that targets the EU becoming climate neutral by 2050.

One area where Brussels may well decide to flex its muscles is in the current talks with the UK on a post-Brexit trade deal.

There is growing irritation over the bluster emanating from some UK Government Ministers, with a curt suggestion from EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier that the UK “cut the rhetoric”.

There is also a feeling that Barnier is not going to jump through hoops to get a deal done by Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s self-imposed deadline of December 31.

“Brexit has not gone away,” he warned.

How this plays out will only become clear as negotiations ramp up in coming months through what could well be an angry summer of discontent.