History is a harsh mistress, and those who disrespect her pay the penalty regardless of previous ability and success — reference Napoleon in 1812 and Hitler in 1942.
I am writing this on the anniversary of one such singular event. The Battle of Stamford Bridge, which might have been one of the defining moments in British history, is now almost forgotten because of what followed.
In 1066 Harold II of England, the most able Anglo Saxon king since Alfred, defeated an invading army of Northmen at Stamford Bridge in Yorkshire, virtually ending the Viking era in one master stroke.
He fell upon the huge but unprepared host by making a forced march from the south, covering hundreds of kilometres at a rate unprecedented for the time.
But when William of Normandy landed a far smaller force on the south coast a few days later, Harold, instead of waiting for reinforcements, made the mistake of rushing his depleted and exhausted army back to meet the new threat.
As a result what should have been a mopping-up operation became a hard-fought contest between two roughly matched opponents which William narrowly won, so radically changing the story of what eventually became the United Kingdom.
So why am I writing this? Because I feel that 2020 may be another year in which the currents of history are flowing towards an international crisis which has the potential to threaten us all.
In the United States we have an erratic and self-centred President who is currently seeing everything through the lens of his re-election in November, and has even hinted he might not accept being beaten.
We have a European Union distracted and weakened by the United Kingdom’s ill-thought-out and damaging Brexit process, unable to respond to mounting atrocities on its own borders as the Belarusian dictator stops at nothing to remain in power.
In Russia a leader who is on record as saying that “democracy has had its day” is orchestrating social media chaos among those states who still try to hold free and fair elections.
China has, in recent days, been testing the resolve of democratic Taiwan (and those who might come to its aid) as it prepares to add to its already unashamedly expansionist ambitions.
The list of states that have failed or on the brink of failure is growing almost as fast as that of so-called strongmen who are squeezing the life out of nations that once proudly lived by the rule of law.
Add into this mix the world-wide disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences, plus a number of more local but no less devastating natural events, and we are living firmly within the Chinese curse of “interesting times”.
Can it get worse? The dystopian scenarios of troops surrounding the White House to haul out a President who refuses to leave, of a second American Civil War, unthinkable only a few months ago, are now being seriously canvassed. Yes, it could get worse, but it need not.
What is desperately required in the democratic powerhouses of Europe and the US is for people to pay attention and stop being taken in by slick, populist slogans and easy answers to increasingly complex questions.
Never have true leaders — those who are prepared to take action not because it is popular but because it is right — been more in demand.
The next few weeks and months are either going to provide them, or we will all face a very troubled and uncertain future.
