In a world filled with uncertainty, there appears to be one thing Australians can rely on — our relationship with China will never return to what it was just a couple of years ago.
Positions have hardened on both sides and there will certainly be no retreat from the authoritarian, one-party State led by President Xi Jinping.
Nor is there any sign that Canberra will make any of the concessions demanded by Beijing – not from the current Government, or one that might follow.
Friendship between the Governments of Australia and China, never really more than a polite diplomatic illusion, has been permanently shattered by competitive realities in the rapidly-changing world of global power politics.
This does not mean World War III is imminent, or even that we are about to be plunged into a new Cold War. China and Australia can still be economic partners as long as it is in the interests of both nations — and for the moment that is the case.
Just as you don’t have to like the supermarket from which you buy your essential supplies, or the utility that provides your electricity, there will continue to be 1001 things we need with the ‘made in China’ label.
We pay for all those things, and China pays for the materials that often are essential to their manufacture. It is an equitable business arrangement. Given the gulf that separates the ideology and attitudes of the two countries, a business arrangement is all it need, and probably should, be.
So why are we experiencing all this anger and fury coming out of Beijing simply because Australia reiterates its long-standing position on human rights, or its more recent, and quite reasonable (in fact essential) demand that the world learns more about the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic?
In his new book, Red Zone: China’s Challenge and Australia’s Future, Political and International Editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, Peter Hartcher suggests China has an unrealistic world view in which nations should be grateful for the benefits it is bringing to them through trade.
This especially applies to Australia as it has been buying so much of what we produce, from iron ore to fine wines, and sending so many of its students to be educated at our universities.
The fact these are purely business arrangements beneficial to both sides seems lost on the Beijing Mandarins who complain that our failure to perform in the way they want “hurts the feelings of the Chinese people”.
Hartcher believes China’s aggressive push-backs to any criticisms, however mild, is cover for an anxious and insecure regime unable to understand why it is not universally loved and admired.
He gives as an example the books and movies about the loveable children’s character, Winnie the Pooh, which suddenly disappeared, almost overnight, after mischievous online references to the bear’s resemblance to President Xi.
“What sort of leader is so threatened by this sort of parody that the national internet must be purged of it?” Hartcher asks.
He points out that nobody in the United States was troubled when President Barack Obama was portrayed at Tigger, the excitably foolish tiger, or when Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe was likened to Eeyore, the sad saggy donkey (both also Pooh characters).
He believes these kinds of actions testify “not to a great power, but to great anxiety – not to great strength, but to great fragility”.
However, even insecure bullies lash out sometimes, and there are some elements in Australia who believe we should be doing more to placate our northern neighbour.
They ask whether we can always rely on the US alliance to back us up in any all-out confrontation, especially as the recent Trump Administration demonstrated it might not always be the steadfast friend of the past.
Hartcher’s answer is that we should refrain from the eternal question of whether to favour China, our largest trading partner, or the US, our traditional ally.
“Australia needs to concentrate on strengthening itself, making itself armour-plated against foreign subversion and domination, so that it can engage confidently with China and the world,” he writes.
On the question of whether we should make a choice between China and the United States, the answer should always be “Australia”.
Red Zone: China’s Challenge and Australia’s Future, by Peter Hartcher, is published by Black Inc. and costs $32.99.
