Turkish turmoil in era of ultimatums

An obscure American clergyman, currently under house arrest in Turkey, has been the trigger for turmoil that is ratcheting up of the trade war, possibly leading to a global economic crisis and the break-up of NATO.

Of course, no one should really blame Pastor Andrew Brunson, who until his arrest accused of spying and being part of the failed 2016 coup against the Government, headed the Izmir Resurrection Church on Turkey’s Aegean coast.

His detention is almost certainly in response to the US refusal to extradite cleric Fetullah Gulen who Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes, rightly or wrongly, was behind the coup. Thus Brunson has become a pawn in a game of power politics.

Worse for him, his detention comes in an era of megaphone diplomacy where threat and counter-threat are bandied about through press release and social media with the whole world looking on.

As a result Erdogan will not back down and his United States counterpart, Donald Trump, is ready to bludgeon Turkey with massive trade sanctions.

Turkey’s economy is already in trouble, largely due to the populist president’s financial illiteracy and fears that now he has managed to secure himself dictatorial powers following the June elections, he will put many of his harebrained schemes into action.

One of which is his belief that interest rates should be kept low as higher rates lead to more inflation. The opposite is the case.

Turkey’s Central Bank should be raising rates in order to tame inflation and support the currency which is in freefall. The fact it has not suggests Erdogan has robbed it of the independence so necessary in a modern functioning economy.

His comments would hardly have instilled confidence in already concerned international investors: “This will be my people's response against those waging an economic war against us. If they have their dollar, we have the people, we have Allah."

If Trump really does put the blowtorch to Turkey’s exports to the US, which include steel and aluminium, then it is highly likely Erdogan will seek a saviour in Russian President Vladimir Putin, possibly even cutting ties with NATO.

Nothing would please Putin more in his quest to disrupt NATO and the European Union — a welcome addition to the mischief he is already planning for Montenegro and Bosnia and Hertozgovena.

As for Trump, his actions have become so erratic that diplomatic observers have virtually given up trying to understand him.

The tried and true system of quiet negotiation using back channels and intermediaries to achieve results in difficult situations has been thrown overboard.

We seem to have re-entered the era of public demands and ultimatums that led nations into catastrophic conflict in the early years of the last century.

As for Pastor Brunson, freedom remains an elusive dream.