Monday, September 5, 2016

After Karimov? Uzbekistan in the balance

The recent death of Uzbek President Islam Karimov reminded me of a conversation I had with a commentator and former senator from that country some 16 years ago. We discussed why Karimov needed to keep such an iron grip on the country he had ruled since before the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The president had just been re-elected with around 90 per cent of the vote in a process that was clearly rigged. Why, I asked, is it necessary for him to have such an unbelievably high percentage of the vote which would never happen in a fair election? Why couldn’t he be happy with say 65 per cent which would still be classed as a landslide in the West?

My companion said that if such a result was published and it was seen that perhaps 30 per cent or more opposed Karimov it would be an encouragement for “undesirable” elements in the country.

“Uzbeks have the choice between democracy and chaos or strong rule and stability and overwhelmingly they choose stability. In Uzbekistan if you go about your lawful business, raise your family, pay your taxes and keep out of politics you have nothing to fear from the Government,” the former parliamentarian said.

This supposed link between democracy and chaos has been skilfully managed by Karimov over the past quarter of a century, reinforced more recently by the need to confront Islamic extremism in a country where the majority of the population profess to be Muslim.  However, like many dictators, the Uzbek strongman saw himself as immortal and had no interest in succession planning.

The situation is complicated by the Uzbekistan’s strategic position in central Asia, which is bound to see the United States, Russia and China all vying for influence with whoever manages to take control in Tashkent.    

While a number of names are being thrown around as possible successors, an obvious choice has yet to emerge. At best this will result in a behind-the-scenes power struggle, at worst overt violence and the kind of instability that Karimov so feared.


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