China ups the ante in border dispute

Suddenly the rhetoric from China over its long-running border dispute with India has changed.

After months of soothing words and claims that the problem should be settled by negotiation and must not be allowed to interfere in business relations between the two Asian giants, Beijing now says disagreement over the border poses a “major challenge” to the development of bilateral ties.

There is no doubt that China is adopting a much more aggressive approach to its claims on parts of the Indian States of and Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh — and the reasons are obvious.

In recent months the relationship between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin has become much closer, especially since Putin’s visit to Beijing. While Western media has generally been dismissive of the meeting as just another part of the diplomatic round, the implications go far beyond that.

Given that the two leaders are authoritarians, indifferent to human rights and distasteful of Western-style democracy, greater contact was inevitable in the long term, but both see rapprochement as especially advantageous at this time.

With the long border between the two countries’ backdoors secure, their leaders are free to meddle in what they consider to be their spheres of influence. For Putin it is the ‘near abroad’ that was once part of the Soviet Empire, and the countries of Central Europe that used to pay homage to Moscow.

He can, and will continue to prop up the regime President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, prolonging the civil war there, ensuring floods of refugees destabilise the despised European Union, as well as snipping off more territory from Ukraine and placing subtle but increasing pressure on the Baltic States of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia.   

Meanwhile China can pursue its expansionist ambitions in the South China Sea, bully nations such as the Philippines and Vietnam which dare to protest and get tough with India, the country it sees as the greatest potential obstacle to its domination of south-east and southern Asia.

The problem for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is that a continuation of his country’s strong economic growth in recent years is to no small extent dependent on doing business with and obtaining investment from Beijing. The question is how much can Modi take in order to keep relations with his neighbour sweet.

In recent weeks, India has seen its application to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group vetoed by Beijing, China has blocked India’s attempt to get the head of Pakistani militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed, Masood Azhar, declared a terrorist by the United Nations Security Council, and has been taken to task by Chinese Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs, Li Huilai for creating unspecified “emerging new issues” between the countries.

There is no question of Modi conceding anything on the border dispute — to do so would be political suicide. His only option is to stand firm and make it clear that China risks conflict if it persists in its demands.

All this points to difficult times ahead for New Delhi as the Moscow-Beijing axis realigns its sights while the United States is distracted by elections and Europe reels from the British vote to leave the EU.