Kachin insurgency crumbling

The military campaign against the Kachins, the most intransient of Burma’s restless ethnic minorities, appears to be approaching a decisive stage.

Earlier this month Burmese Government forces took the key fortress of Hka Ya, the last stronghold on the road to the Kachin capital of Laiza. However, it is still not certain whether there will be a further advance on the city, which would probably involve bitter street-by-street fighting.

Burmese President Thein Sein is reportedly reluctant to order a final assault given the inevitable casualties that would result. He favours a negotiated settlement, but in 50 years of insurrection there have been many attempts at diplomacy and numerous ceasefires – the last only a few days before the assault on Hka Ya – all have failed.

Even the capture of Laiza would probably not put an end to the conflict as leaders of the Kachin Independence Army have promised to retreat into the jungle and fight a guerrilla war if they are forced to abandon their capital.

Many civilians are not waiting for that, with reports that tens of thousands are on the move preparing to flee across Burma’s northern border into China.

That is the last thing China wants – and not just because it would be reluctant to cope with a refugee crisis. As the Government in Nypyidaw finally begins to open up to the world, Beijing is in the box seat to develop the country’s vast natural resources, especially its rich gas fields.

It is currently in the final stages of building an overland oil and gas pipeline directly into Yunnan Province, in the long run a cheaper proposition than tankers through the Straits of Malacca.

However, to do this it needs a stable country, free from the ethnic violence which has plagued Burma since independence in 1948.

Politically, China would like to draw Burma more firmly into its orbit, as a counterbalance against other Western-leaning South-East Asian nations. In pursuit of this it has embarked on a charm offensive, building hospitals, roads and other infrastructure – although there are the usual complaints about the small number of local workers employed on these projects.

Whether China’s so far highly successful engagement with Burma will become a poisoned chalice remains to be seen.