Europe on the Mend

Dutch national elections do not normally excite much interest outside of Europe, but on this occasion they were closely watched and the outcome hailed as a sign that the continent is at last coming to grips with its four-year economic and political crisis.

With all votes counted, Prime Minister Mark Rutte was returned with an increased number of seats for his centre-right Liberal Party. While Mr Rutte talked tough during the campaign when it came to more bailouts for the tottering Greek economy, he is certainly in favour of keeping the Netherlands in the Eurozone and the European Union itself.

The man who campaigned on an exit from both, Geert Wilders, of the far right Freedom Party, took something of   bath from the electorate, losing nine seats, and can now expect to be left out of any governing coalition. His views are widely considered to have been far too radical for the conservative Dutch and he has been punished accordingly.

So is this the first indication that Europe generally is turning the corner? Not in itself perhaps, but the signs are increasingly encouraging. Germany’s Constitutional Court has declared legal a move by Chancellor Angela Merkel to make contributions to the European Stability Mechanism, a permanent bailout fund that will be able to put out small economic fires before they become all-consuming blazes.

At the same time a decision by the European Central Bank to re-start its bond-buying program had the required effect of lowing interest rates on Spanish and Italian bonds.

Europe has a long way to go, but the so-called experts who grabbed headlines a few weeks back with their warnings of an imminent collapse of the euro and perhaps the EU itself have gone strangely silent.

The world needs a strong and prosperous EU, one that can play its full part in world affairs and especially in a surging Africa where its traditional ties, dating back to colonial days, can do much to counter the growing influence of China.

As billionaire business investor George Soros said during a recent interview with the International Herald Tribune newspaper, the EU is about more than deficits, currencies and bonds. Europe is also a political and moral idea – one worth preserving.  

Missed chances on the Korean peninsula

It seems the West has lost the chance to ease North Korea out of its Stalinist straightjacket.

Earlier this year I wrote an article in On Line Opinion suggesting that with the accession of Kim Jong-un to the leadership there might open a window of opportunity to promote reform http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=13616

This was not based on any fanciful notion Kim, with his background of study in Switzerland and his apparent liking for Walt Disney characters, was going to lead a movement out of the shadows, but that there might be others in the Pyongyang who could be encouraged to do so.

The theory was that if Kim, still in his late 20s, became entrenched in power, it was likely to be another 40 years at least before another change in leadership, something that might exercise the minds of others in the North Korean hierarchy who would like to see a move towards a more accommodating stance to the outside world in their lifetimes.

However, it appears policymakers in Western capitals have put too much faith in Kim himself – that the fact he likes fast food outlets, mini-skirts and American basketball meant he was ready to open North Korea to the world and perhaps even abandon his reckless policy of intimidation against his closest neighbours.

It was quite obvious earlier this year when North Korea negotiated a food-for-nuclear-missile-freeze with the United States and then almost immediately launched a test missile that it was business as usual. The Obama Administration immediately cancelled the deal perpetuating the one-step-forward-one-step-back situation that has existed for decades.  

So if the opportunity for some quiet undermining of Kim’s nascent regime has been lost, what next? The signs are that South Korea is losing patience with the continual provocations from the North which in recent times has torpedoed a South Korean navy ship and shelled an island with the loss of civilian and military lives.

The South Korean command structure is outraged by these acts and wants a re-write of the rules of engagement to allow a more aggressive reaction than occurred after these incidents. An election in December is quite likely to result in an administration more sympathetic to these attitudes. The possibility of an all-out war cannot be discounted.

In the meantime floods and famine continue to ravage North Korea, food shortages are worsening, and Kim perpetuates the methods employed by his father and grandfather of removing anyone who is a threat, or a perceived threat, to his regime.

There may yet be people within the palace guard who are sickened by these antics and are prepared to act, but the chances of this happening are lessening by the day.

Gas finds put spotlight on an old crisis

Cyprus, the little problem in the eastern Mediterranean that the world would rather forget, surfaced again recently in a dispute over who controls potentially rich natural gas fields offshore from the divided island.

That division resulted from an invasion by Turkish forces 38 years ago in support of the Turkish minority in Cyprus and to stop a possible attempt to unite the island with Greece. A ceasefire was negotiated that left Turkey in control of roughly one third of the country and there, despite numerous attempts at a resolution, the situation has rested.

Complications have been created by the proclamation of the Republic of Northern Cyprus – an entity recognised only by Turkey - and Cyprus’ entry into the European Union. Brussels has made it clear that any progress on Turkey’s own long held ambition for EU membership is contingent on a settlement on Cyprus. For the Government in Nicosia, that settlement must include Turkish withdrawal and reunification, albeit with guarantees and some autonomy for the Turkish Cypriots.

Any resolution would also have to take into account demands by the Greek Cypriots who fled their homes in the north that they recover their property. The Government of Northern Cyprus has made a good income from selling these dwellings to wealthy Europeans as holiday and retirement homes. A settlement will depend on a ruling of who owns what and what compensation should be paid.

Opinion is divided over whether the latest gas finds will bring the two sides together or exacerbate tensions. An American company, Noble Energy, based in Houston, is leading the exploration along with Israeli partners. So far the consortium has been dealing only with the Greek Cypriot Government which considers it has the sole right to issue drilling licences

This is now contested by the northerners, backed by Turkey, who say they also have a claim on the waters surrounding the island. They have demanded the consortium stop drilling and that Nicosia put a freeze on issuing licences.

The United Nations, which has manned a buffer zone between the two parties since 1974 is hailing the gas discoveries as a wealth generator that could help solve the compensation problem and lead to reunification. Less optimistic observers see them as just another resource to be squabbled over with the United States and Israel now also involved. Only time will tell who is right.  

When 70 is still too young to retire

Those of us of a certain age are well aware that the traditional retirement age of 65 is often no longer an option thanks to the global financial crisis and the likelihood many of us will live into our 80s and beyond. However, the conventional wisdom was that another few years of full-time earning would repair the damage and at least allow us to enjoy life by the time we reached 70.

A new study in the United States claims that even this later retirement date will be optimistic for many, especially those in low-paid jobs.

The Employment Benefit Research Institute, using 2007 as a benchmark, estimates that no more than 52 per cent of people aged 50 to 59 then would be able to have an adequate retirement income by the time they reached 65.

But this figure rose only to 64 per cent if they worked on until 70.

Of course these figures apply to the US, which has a different (and many would say highly inferior) superannuation regime to the compulsory superannuation system that operates in Australia.

We should be thankful for the fact that compulsory super exists in Australia. It would have been even better had the Howard Government not canned a contribution rise from nine to 10 per cent of income when it took office in 1996 and there is a compelling case for that figure to be raised to 12 per cent now. 

The politics of rape

The US election campaign never fails to throw up its quota of candidates with wacky ideas. In the past climate change got its share. In 2012 it seems that abortion is back in the limelight.

Politicians on the far right of the pro-life movement – those who oppose abortion under any circumstances – are well aware that overwhelming numbers of Americans support abortion in the case of rape victims. This has led to some quite amazing statements as the candidates scramble to find excuses to justify their positions.

Tom Smith, the Republican candidate for the Senate in Pennsylvania, likened a pregnancy resulting from rape as similar to having an unwanted pregnancy from premarital sex. Something he said had happened to his daughter.

“She chose the life – and I commend her for that. She knew my views, but fortunately for me she chose the way I thought,” he said.

After close questioning from reporters on whether rape and premarital sex were indeed the same things he replied: ‘No, no, no, but, well, put yourself in a father’s position. Yes, I mean. It is similar, this isn’t, but I’m back to the original, I’m pro-life – period.”

Quite reasonably asked to clarify this remark he said the method of conception was not important, what was that it created a life.

Earlier, another Republican, Todd Akin, of Missouri, claimed that ‘legitimate rape’ could never result in conception as the victim would be too traumatised, essentially saying that any raped woman who became pregnant must have participated in and even enjoyed the sexual act.

This incredible statement drew fire from all sides of politics and Akin later withdrew the comment calling it rather appropriately “ill-conceived”!    

Revisiting the death of journalism

Almost two years ago I wrote in this blog about the death of journalism, or at least the journalism I have known and loved for more than 40 years. I don’t think I have ever felt so depressed by a subject. In fact, it turned me off blogging and I did not make another contribution to Towards a Better Day until earlier this month.

With more time on my hands than I have experienced since my first job in the mid-1960s I have revisited the website and, tentatively begun to resurrect it. That article is still there, now two or three down on the list, and what it says seems just as relevant and prophetic at a time when heavy staff cutbacks have affected the newspaper where I spent much of my working life The Canberra Times in Australia’s capital.

In search of something new to say on the subject I came across the transcript of a speech by the Federal Member for Fraser, Andrew Leigh, until recently my local Member of Parliament.
In his address, part of The University of Canberra Public Lecture Series, Leigh analysed the problems and attempted to set out solutions to the malaise that professional journalism – and especially newspaper journalism – finds itself in today. He asserts that good quality, investigative journalism still matters, still influences public opinion and perceptions and, in some instances, can still change history. However, its voice is being smothered by, on the one hand, restructuring resulting from the continual leakage of advertising revenues to the internet and conversely, by the falling cost of getting a message out there that encourages everyone with an opinion and a computer to be a ‘citizen journalist’ (although Leigh never uses the term).  

“The big technological shift in media has been the falling cost of disseminating ideas. Cable and digital television have expanded the number of channels. Digital radio will have the same effect on that medium. Ubiquitous broadband has allowed news to be conveyed through a host of electronic media. Among Australian adults who are online, almost all use social media, with 76 per cent using Facebook, and 10 per cent using Twitter. About half of all Australian politicians tweet,” he says.

This has led to what he describes as ‘information inequality’. For people who seek the news, there has never been a better time, Press conferences are played live on television and radio, transcripts or reruns of programs missed can be easily obtained, thoughtful bloggers abound and tweets can provide the headline links to almost any subject under the sun.

But at the same time for the less engaged sections of the population, the result has been information overload. At one time everyone read the same newspapers, listened to the same radio broadcasts and watched the same television programs. For the people who were more interested in Lara Bingle than Laurie Oakes, something of Laurie Oakes filtered through. Now they can immerse themselves in a diet of Bingle, swimsuit models, celebrity chefs, with a good lashing of sport and be unaware, if not of the Prime Minister, then certainly their local MP.

“I believe that changes in the media are one of the factors making this group of Australians more disconnected from politics. In effect, technology has widened the information gap between the most-informed and least-informed members of society,” Leigh says.

He suggests a number of solutions without really recommending any: a stronger and more effective complaints mechanism; subsidies for genuinely quality newspapers; giving newspapers which subscribe to a code of conduct tax deductible gift status.

But the nub of these arguments concern politicians themselves. Ministers and Shadow Ministers have surrounded themselves in a cocoon of advisers who worship the 24-hour news cycle. The 10-second grab is worth more than the carefully explained policy. The story that makes headlines in the morning is dead by the evening. There is now a deliberate and determined attempt to dumb down the electorate’s consumption of news, to shorten attention spans. Slogans and catch-cries have replaced reasoned arguments and analysis.

Is this what the public wants? I believe it is not. But it is what politicians want because they know many of their slogans and catch-cries won’t stand up to detailed inspection. The new journalism is a golden age for the populist with a simple message.

Questions like ‘is it feasible?’ and “who pays?’ can wait until after the next election.

A very foolish man

Avigdor Lieberman has a reputation for being something of a loose cannon in Israeli politics. The Foreign Minister seems to be constantly in the headlines often for espousing policies that are at odds with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud-led coalition Government.

However, Lieberman's latest move was a shocker even by the standards of the wayward Foreign Minister.

In a letter to the members of the Middle East 'Quartet' responsible for overseeing moves towards peace in the region - the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations, Lieberman called for the ousting of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on the grounds that he headed 'a dictatorial government riddled with corruption' and was an obstacle to peace.

He proposed staging new elections in the West Bank to bring about a government that would be 'more realistic and legitimate'.

While no one really quarrels with his description of the shortcomings of the Abbas Government, the letter is a blatant intrusion into the affairs of the Palestinian Authority and comes at a time when the level of violence is beginning to subside.

In addition, an election held now could only have two possible outcomes - the reelection of Abbas or the emergence of a more radical administration led by Hamas, the current rulers in the Gaza Strip, increasingly popular among Palestinians but regarded by Israel as a terrorist organisation.

For the moment at least, there is no real alternative to Abbas, with all his faults, remaining in power and any attempt to tinker with that arrangement would be the height of stupidity.