North Korea’s Kim set for a long rule

The official broadcasts of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are as stultifyingly boring as always: Congratulations sent to overseas leaders newly appointed or who have reached some milestone; gifts made to the supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, from the City of Moscow – and always a swipe at the Republic of Korea in the south - students in a ‘surprise demonstration’ having their posters removed by the ‘fascist police’.

The view from Pyongyang is that of a State which is a haven of tranquility and happiness in a sea of capitalist misery and despair which requires million-strong armed forces and a nuclear capability to ward off the arch-enemies, South Korea, Japan and the United States, who plot to wipe the North off the map.

And yet there are now clear signs that all is not well in the socialist paradise with the hurried execution of the man thought to be the young Kim’s guide and mentor, his uncle by marriage, Jang Song-thaek.

Add to that unconfirmed reports formerly influential figures close to Jang have either disappeared or are seeking refuge in China and you have all the evidence of a palace coup. Whether a failed plot again Kim that was discovered, or Kim just deciding to free himself from influences that did not appeal to him, remains unclear.

Earlier this year in trying to unravel the Pyongyang puzzle I suggested that Kim, who has lived and studied in the West and is a fan of American basketball, may be seeking to make North Korea more accommodating to the international community. I believe that view is wrong. Kim obviously prefers the the trappings of power to the opportunity of watching live exhibition matches between the Chicago Bulls and the Los Angeles Lakers.

I also wrote around that time that as Kim began to establish himself it would begin to dawn on the old guard that this youthful leader would probably be around until the middle of the century, something which might exercise their minds as to the whether this was in their interests – that theory sits far more comfortably with the recent events.

It is believed that Kim escaped an assassination attempt earlier this year which might have been the source of the current retribution. The clampdown was swift and unusual even by North Korean standards. Executions are usually reserved for common ‘criminals and agitators’.

However, as the President of the Pacific Forum Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Ralph A. Cossa, points out, the reprisals will probably have the desired effect.   “Remember the old maxim about ‘killing the chicken to scare the monkeys?’” Cossa writes.

“Kim went straight for the monkey. Can you imagine how scared the chickens must now be?”