A
remarkable achievement for these learned and no doubt highly-paid experts to
have unearthed a fact that a junior demographer in the 1970s would have been
able to reveal – if Governments in those days had bothered to listen.
I
could go back further, mindful of a report in the 1960s which stated that if
the current demographic trends continued there would come a point where there
would be just two workers for every one retiree. However, that was a UK
publication, so I simply mention it in passing.
These
latest reports show that, for the most part, Australian Governments have been
asleep at the wheel for the past 40 years when it comes to adequately preparing
for the collapse of the country’s working-age population. Note my difference,
the Productivity Commission, the Treasury and others, always put the problem on
older Australians – too many of them – rather than productive working younger
people – too few of them.
It
is so much easier to blame the inevitability of people getting older, over
which Governments have no control, than the shortage of tax-paying workers,
which Governments could and should have fixed over the past three decades.
One
way of tackling the problem should have been a far larger compulsory
superannuation fund. The Hawke Government belatedly introduced one at nine per
cent in the late 1980s, but there it has rested ever since, woefully
inadequate. Successive Governments since have either actively blocked further
increases or simply elected to do nothing. What we should have in 2013 is a
scheme at around 15 per cent with an employee and well as employer component.
Secondly
we should have looked to immigration far more than we have to reduce the age of
our working population. Yes, I am well aware that this would be a short-term
fix; nevertheless it ought to have been part of the equation. Despite the long
drone from unions about immigrants taking jobs from Australians, evidence has shown
this is clearly not the case and that new arrivals actually create jobs in the
medium to long term by setting up small businesses and creating demand for
services.
Finally
there should have been a far more sustained effort to encourage young people to
have more children. This goes beyond slogans like former Treasurer Peter
Costello’s “one for the mother, one for the father and one for the country”, or
even baby bonus rewards. What is needed is a comprehensive package of easier
and affordable childcare available to all, more attractive maternal and
parental leave and tougher laws to ensure that all employers understand that
they cannot disadvantage their employees who take time off to have and care for
their children.
The
Productivity Commission’s answer, is, as usual, weighted against older people,
with pensions and retirement ages lifted to 70. While higher age levels are
needed, a draconian increase to 70 is unfair and possible unsustainable as
there are a number of occupations where people would simply not be able to
perform adequately at such an advanced age. This would mean (presumably) that
they would have to receive some other form of taxpayer-funded assistance.
Many
older people are prepared to do their bit. But to designate them as ‘the
problem’ is unhelpful and just plain wrong. They are not the problem; they are
a significant part of the solution.
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