The dangers of ignoring Idlib

With the relentless spread of Coronavirus dominating the world’s attention many important world events are slipping under the radar – including the continuing tragedy in Syria’s Idlib Province, which some see as the last act in the country’s nine-year civil war.

They may be optimistic. The remaining rebel fighters have been re-supplied by their ally, Turkey and have blunted the Syrian advance. In addition Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sent his own forces into the province which have spasmodically duelled with their Syrian counterparts.

At present a truce, brokered by Turkey and Syrian ally Russia, is supposed to be in place, but like so many similar agreements in the past, it is constantly being violated.

In the last few days President Erdogan announced that his forces had destroyed eight Russian-made Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile systems, while reports on the ground seem to confirm that fighting, albeit at a lower intensity, is continuing.    

Turkish journalist and political analyst, Abdullah Ayasun says under current conditions a lasting truce is unattainable, pointing to a statement by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that he still intends to exert his regime’s control over the entire Idlib Province.

‘The truce has been declared many times before and collapsed prematurely due to the competing agendas and conflicting goals of the warring sides on the ground,” Ayasun says.

“Turkey cannot back down from its declared goal of thwarting the fall of Idlib and preventing a refugee exodus toward its borders, and Syria cannot abandon this latest stage of its longstanding aim to reunite Syria by clearing Idlib of the remaining rebel forces.

“This makes another confrontation inevitable.”

It also makes for a very dangerous game played by both sides. Erdogan would like to gain full control of Idlib, which could then be used to resettle some of the millions of Syrian refugees he is hosting. His forces could easily achieve this if Damascus was the only enemy, but also taking on Russia is a different matter.

Assad must calculate just how far Russian President Vladimir Putin is prepared to go to support him, especially if what Moscow sees as a reasonable permanent peace can be negotiated.

Putin has to consider the consequences of an all-out war against NATO member Turkey, especially given the volatility of United States President Donald Trump is likely to increase as that country’s election nears.

With the world’s attention — and many of its resources — diverted elsewhere, a sudden escalation of tensions in this perennial hotspot could easily spin out of control.