Corbyn will lose – but will the Tories win?

As the British General Election campaign enters its final days one outcome is becoming clear — it will not result in a Labour Government.

Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn has no chance of overhauling Boris Johnson’s Conservatives, while third party Liberal Democrats appear set to remain just that — a third force in United Kingdom politics.

Beyond that nothing is certain.

A few days ago the predictions were for a Conservative majority of around 60, but since then polls on the number people who are prepared to vote tactically — that is voting for a party they would not normally support in order to keep another party out — by one measure as much as 10 per cent of the electorate, has muddied the water.

Two other factors may work to narrow the Conservative lead still further in the run up to polling day: Concerns over the future of the National Health Service (NHS) after Brexit, and the damning indictment of the Government’s policies over leaving the European Union from a diplomat who has resigned rather than continue to try and ‘sell’ them.

The NHS has been a persistent thorn in the Government side, with critics claiming that crucial aspects of the universal health care system may be negotiated away in a rush to do a post-Brexit trade deal with the United States.

A leaked report posted on the internet, admittedly from a dubious Russian source, suggests the NHS would be “on the table” in any talks.

If nothing else, this news has highlighted how easy it is for the country’s democratic process to become vulnerable to influence from overseas — something that has been claimed to have affected the outcome of the 2016 referendum which resulted in a narrow majority to leave the EU.

On top of this came comments in a resignation letter from Alexandra Hall Hall, the diplomat in charge of explaining Britain’s approach to leaving the European Union to the US Congress and the White House.

Ms Hall Hall said she had become increasingly dismayed by the demands placed on the Civil Service to make claims about Brexit that were not “fully honest”.

She did not name any particular figure in the UK Government but said leaders were reluctant to be honest with Brexit to the point where it was undermining the credibility of the UK abroad.

Ms Hall Hall said her position had become “unbearable personally and untenable professionally”.

In other late developments, one of the masterminds behind the Conservatives’ 2015 election victory, Lord Cooper, said the Conservatives had degenerated from a “broad-based, open-minded, aspirational One Nation party into a narrow nationalist party obsessed by the single issue of securing Brexit at any cost”.

Lord Cooper said it was clear from his surveys that a majority of voters did not want the Conservative version of Brexit to go ahead without a referendum, but also that the majority was opposed to a Labour Government led by Corbyn. 

It may be that the outcome of this election may rest with moderate Conservative voters, the so-called ‘civilised Tories’ in the Ken Clarke mould, appalled by the unabashed jingoism of the current leadership, but wondering if they have no choice other than to go along with it.

Their decision will be crucial – but for many it may not be made until they enter the polling booth.