Keeping safe from the elephants

A recent article by a South Korean defence analyst, advocating ‘middle-power cooperation’ between his country and India as part of a check on China’s expansionist ambitions, has added a new dimension to the tense political climate of South and East Asia.

Retired navy captain Sukjoon Yoon, now a Fellow at the Korea Institute of Maritime Strategy, believes the United States’ long-standing commitment to Asia is faltering and that its much-heralded ‘pivot’ to the region is just so much rhetoric to cover an exit strategy.

He sees Beijing taking advantage of its rival’s ambiguous position to push the envelope, maybe even declaring a “Chinese version of the Monroe Doctrine” as part of its plan to re-establish its former dominance over the area.

The original Monroe Doctrine, introduced by US President James Monroe in 1823, stated that further efforts by European powers to interfere with nations in the Americas would be viewed by Washington as acts of aggression.

Dr Yoon says China has been unwilling to tolerate third-party involvement in its disputes with weaker nations in the South China Sea, East China Sea and Yellow Sea. “Such assertiveness is disturbingly reminiscent of the regional order that prevailed during the Middle Kingdom era.”

While South Korea has problems with China’s seaward expansion, India is feeling pressure from its giant neighbour on its land boundaries, Dr Yoon maintains. He points to last year’s intrusion by Chinese troops 19 kilometres into Indian territory beyond the Line of Actual Control which marks the provisional border between the two countries.

South Korea and India appear to be moving in the direction he suggests. Last June Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh sent a special envoy to Seoul and South Korean President Park Geun-hye has just completed a visit to New Delhi. 

In an adaptation of the African proverb ‘when elephants fight the grass gets trampled’, Dr Yoon says middle-power cooperation is necessary if the smaller nations of Asia are not to be marginalised by issues between China, Japan and the US.

“Middle-power cooperation is an overarching concept by which Asian nations, with their diverse and disparate interests, can bridge wide gaps among their policies and capabilities and leverage their influence against the Great Powers,” he says.

Dr Yoon paints a bleak picture and I cannot agree that the US is ready to withdraw from its East Asian commitments. If true, following Iraq and Afghanistan, it would be dangerously like the isolationist policies of the 1920s and 30s which in some measure created the climate for World War II.

That said, Dr Yoon’s advocacy of ‘middle-power cooperation’ makes a great deal of sense, if only as an insurance policy. Whether this could be achieved through an adaptation of current structures, or something entirely new would be a question for the future.