Will Iraq be a second Syria?

The fall of Fallujah and at least part of Ramadi to rebel groups led by the Islamic State of Iraq in the Levant (ISIL) is the biggest challenge yet to the Iraqi Government of Nuri al-Maliki – and indeed to the entire Iraq project which began with the US-led invasion of the country a decade ago.

The two major objectives of Operation Iraqi Freedom were to depose dictator Saddam Hussein over what was to prove the fallacious claim that he was about to use ‘weapons of mass destruction’ against his neighbours, and to turn the country into a model democracy that would be a template for the rest of the Arab world. The first was quickly achieved; the second has proved a long and painful process whose outcome is increasingly in question.  

American combat forces exited the country more than two years ago, leaving behind advisers who were supposed to complete the training of Iraqi forces, including both military and police. For many observers, it was a case of the US “declaring victory and running”.

Since then the al-Maliki Government has had to contend with a continuous series of bombings, suicide attacks and general unrest, especially among the Sunni minority, once dominant under Saddam, which now saw itself steadily marginalised. This kind of sporadic violence has been commonplace in the country, but the taking of significant territory and the expulsion of Iraq’s security forces, takes the crisis to a new level.

The difficulties for Baghdad have been intensified by the civil war in neighbouring Syria. It is believed that the ISIL, which has links with al-Qaida, initially set up training camps for the Syrian rebels in the remote Iraqi desert, the current conflict breaking out when Iraqi security forces tried to dislodge them.

Fallujah and Ramadi were easy targets. They are situated in Anbar Province, a Sunni stronghold and the area that gave US forces most trouble post-invasion. It is not clear whether the ISIL is in full control or whether there are other anti-Government forces involved. What is clear is that Baghdad’s authority has been flouted and so far the Government has been unable to do anything about it.

US Secretary of State John Kerry has confirmed that the Obama Administration does plan to help Baghdad with the rapid supply of sophisticated weaponry but there will be no “boots on the ground”. In other words this is a fight for Iraq alone. The country’s military is reportedly massing for a determined effort to retake the lost areas.

Should it fail it would be a body blow, possibly a fatal one, to the al-Maliki Government and any hope of a stable administration in the country, with the prospect of another Syrian-style conflict wracking the already strife-torn Middle East.