Closer to the brink of all-out war

A year ago I reported on the International Crisis Group’s (ICG) overview of the previous 12 months. It did not make happy reading.

No end in sight to the war in Ukraine as Russia’s illegal invasion continued; tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh; Iran rocked by internal protests; gang violence in Haiti, and the perennial flashpoint of Taiwan, were just some of the problems the world faced.

Sounds familiar? A year on and nothing has been solved, unless you count Azerbaijan’s military offensive clearing out ethnic Armenians from the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave and the likelihood of some sort of peace agreement between the two countries in the face of this fait accompli.

Added to the misery is Israel’s war on Gaza following the terrorist attacks on its civilian population, while Yemen, which the ICG described as a forgotten conflict a year ago, has well and truly discarded that mantle as Houthi rebels threaten to bring world trade to its knees with repeated attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and its approaches.

In its latest report the ICG says peacemaking itself is in crisis, with diplomatic efforts to end fighting failing.

“More leaders are pursuing their end militarily. More believe they can get away with it,” the report says.

“More people are dying in fighting, being forced from their homes or in need of life-saving aid than in decades.”

Looming over all this is the political dysfunction in the United States as the growing assertiveness of Populist/Isolationist elements in Congress have stifled President Joe Biden’s resolve to provide Ukraine with more military support in the face of Russia’s continued aggression.

The US election in November, which could see the return of former President Donald Trump, is a further destabilising influence as Trump professes to like Russian President Vladimir Putin and is ambivalent on further weapons supplies for Ukraine.

European countries face the very real possibility they may have to take over the burden of supporting Ukraine in order to keep an ever-aggressive and confident Putin away from their borders.

In the Pacific, China’s longstanding claim to the island democracy of Taiwan has been ramped up following continued support for the nationalist Democratic Progressive Party in the recent election.

While it is unlikely that Beijing wants to risk an all-out seaborne invasion that at best would result in a messy victory, the return of the erratic policies of the Trump era might well result in a lessening of support for the island and possibly even a deal to allow China a free hand in return for significant trade concessions.

Even the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis may not be over, with the ICG quoting diplomats in the region who fear Azerbaijan may now seek to challenge Armenia’s borders in order to force concessions over a transit route through the country’s south.

Are all these scenarios (and many more) grounds for pessimism in the year ahead? Probably, but maybe, just maybe, sufficient leaders will see how perilously close they are skating to the brink of a devastating global conflict and pull back before it is too late.

It may be that good men and women with a knowledge of history, will note how the nations of Europe sleep-walked into the Great War of 1914 and then so mismanaged the peace that a second conflict became inevitable.

Here’s hoping.