Summing up his analysis of the latest by-election results in the United Kingdom, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, Sir John Curtice made the following observation:
“The coalition of Leave supporters that delivered Boris Johnson his majority in 2019 has collapsed — nearly half are no longer supporting the party, while Brexit itself has lost its allure for some voters.
“The Tory leader [Rishi Sunak] needs to find a new tune for his party, but with living standards falling, the economy faltering, and public services struggling, enticing voters back into the Tory fold still looks far from easy.”
It gives me absolutely no pleasure that what I predicted would happen in 2016 is coming to pass. Leaving the European family was never going to be a good option for a nation where many were still struggling with the transition from Imperial powerhouse to an important, but second-ranked world power.
Within Europe the UK retained a strong voice, a balancing force between Germany and France. Outside it is lost, its influence gone, all but ignored in a world of United States-China rivalries, Asian tiger economies and the rapid advances of new players such as India and Brazil.
Remainers have long had to endure the taunts of “democracy” over the result of the 2016 referendum which saw 51.9 per cent of voters in favour of leaving the EU, but while it has long been considered that Leave got over the line though a mixture of false promises and misrepresentations over the benefits of Brexit, it is also apparent that the architect of the vote, then Prime Minister David Cameron, never believed it should have been the final say on the outcome.
Asked some time later why he did not insist on a ‘consensus majority’ of 55 or 60 per cent in favour on such a crucial issue, Cameron (pictured) said he had always considered the initial referendum to be advisory only, with the question to be revisited when the terms of leaving became clearer.
Where the former Prime Minister failed – and failed miserably – was in not staying in office to manage the process he had created.
His claim that as a supporter of remaining in the EU, he should step away from the development of a plan he did not agree with, does not stack up.
It should have been clear to him that with a wafer-thin majority in favour of leaving, there needed to be continuing consultation on both sides of the argument for and against Brexit.
Instead he walked away within days of the 2016 result, leaving the Government at the mercy of Brexit fanatics determined to deny the people the opportunity to have second thoughts once the dire consequences of leaving became apparent.
There was still one more chance in the 2019 General Election which opportunist Brixiteer Johnson, now Prime Minister, called with the aim of ‘getting Brexit done’.
Here was the opportunity for the Opposition Labour Party to mount a vigorous campaign in support of a second referendum, challenging the Government to defend Brexit in the light of the changed circumstances that had taken place in the more than three years since the original vote.
Instead, Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn, never an EU enthusiast, waffled about re-opening negotiations for a better deal while trying to switch the debate to non-Brexit issues when at the time Brexit was the overwhelming issue on which the election was being fought. It was the equivalent of giving Johnson a free pass.
As a result the Remain camp, more than 48 per cent of the population, and probably more since the consequences of Brexit were now revealed, was cut adrift with no-one to vote for. The field was left open for Johnson’s crushing victory.
While a General Election does not have to be held again until late next year, the performance of the third party in UK politics, the Liberal Democrats, is beginning to have increasing significance.
Its latest by-election result at Somerton and Frome, where it more than wiped out a 20,000 Government majority, follows equally impressive showings in North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton.
The Liberal Democrats have long been the most pro-European Union of all the county’s political institutions, and while the Conservative’s 2019 election win muted its voice, it has begun to cautiously put its toes back into the European waters.
It current policy is to rebuild the trading and social links with the EU which have been damaged by the Brixeteers. It says this will be a lengthy process but states: “Britain’s best future is at the heart of Europe — and our long-term ambition is to see the UK in that place once more.”
Still seen more as a party of protest, its task must be to burnish its European credentials in contrast to a Conservative Government in thrall to hard-line Europhobes and Labour’s acquiescence in what is increasingly seen as the failed Brexit experiment.
Ever since 2016 Remainers have had no place to go – almost half of the population, and maybe many more by now, need a champion.
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