Summing up his analysis of the latest by-election
results in the United Kingdom, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University,
Sir John Curtice made the following observation:
“The
coalition of Leave supporters that delivered Boris Johnson his majority in 2019
has collapsed — nearly half are no longer supporting the party, while Brexit
itself has lost its allure for some voters.
“The
Tory leader [Rishi Sunak] needs to find a new tune for his party, but with
living standards falling, the economy faltering, and public services
struggling, enticing voters back into the Tory fold still looks far from easy.”
It
gives me absolutely no pleasure that what I predicted would happen in 2016 is
coming to pass. Leaving the European family was never going to be a good option
for a nation where many were still struggling with the transition from Imperial
powerhouse to an important, but second-ranked world power.
Within
Europe the UK retained a strong voice, a balancing force between Germany and
France. Outside it is lost, its influence gone, all but ignored in a world of
United States-China rivalries, Asian tiger economies and the rapid advances of
new players such as India and Brazil.
Remainers
have long had to endure the taunts of “democracy” over the result of the 2016
referendum which saw 51.9 per cent of voters in favour of leaving the EU, but
while it has long been considered that Leave got over the line though a mixture
of false promises and misrepresentations over the benefits of Brexit, it is
also apparent that the architect of the vote, then Prime Minister David
Cameron, never believed it should have been the final say on the outcome.
Asked
some time later why he did not insist on a ‘consensus majority’ of 55 or 60 per
cent in favour on such a crucial issue, Cameron (pictured) said he had always considered
the initial referendum to be advisory only, with the question to be revisited
when the terms of leaving became clearer.
Where
the former Prime Minister failed – and failed miserably – was in not staying in
office to manage the process he had created.
His
claim that as a supporter of remaining in the EU, he should step away from the
development of a plan he did not agree with, does not stack up.
It
should have been clear to him that with a wafer-thin majority in favour of
leaving, there needed to be continuing consultation on both sides of the
argument for and against Brexit.
Instead
he walked away within days of the 2016 result, leaving the Government at the
mercy of Brexit fanatics determined to deny the people the opportunity to have
second thoughts once the dire consequences of leaving became apparent.
There
was still one more chance in the 2019 General Election which opportunist
Brixiteer Johnson, now Prime Minister, called with the aim of ‘getting Brexit
done’.
Here
was the opportunity for the Opposition Labour Party to mount a vigorous
campaign in support of a second referendum, challenging the Government to
defend Brexit in the light of the changed circumstances that had taken place in
the more than three years since the original vote.
Instead,
Opposition Leader Jeremy Corbyn, never an EU enthusiast, waffled about
re-opening negotiations for a better deal while trying to switch the debate to
non-Brexit issues when at the time Brexit was the overwhelming issue on which
the election was being fought. It was the equivalent of giving Johnson a free
pass.
As
a result the Remain camp, more than 48 per cent of the population, and probably
more since the consequences of Brexit were now revealed, was cut adrift with
no-one to vote for. The field was left open for Johnson’s crushing victory.
While
a General Election does not have to be held again until late next year, the
performance of the third party in UK politics, the Liberal Democrats, is
beginning to have increasing significance.
Its
latest by-election result at Somerton and Frome, where it more than wiped out a
20,000 Government majority, follows equally impressive showings in North Shropshire and Tiverton and Honiton.
The
Liberal Democrats have long been the most pro-European Union of all the
county’s political institutions, and while the Conservative’s 2019 election win
muted its voice, it has begun to cautiously put its toes back into the European
waters.
It
current policy is to rebuild the trading and social links with the EU which
have been damaged by the Brixeteers. It says this will be a lengthy process but
states: “Britain’s best future is at the heart of Europe — and our long-term
ambition is to see the UK in that place once more.”
Still
seen more as a party of protest, its task must be to burnish its European
credentials in contrast to a Conservative Government in thrall to hard-line
Europhobes and Labour’s acquiescence in what is increasingly seen as the failed
Brexit experiment.
Ever
since 2016 Remainers have had no place to go – almost half of the population,
and maybe many more by now, need a champion.