Why Putin’s imperial quest is doomed

If history is a guide — and I find it usually is — then Vladimir Putin’s quest to reconstitute the Soviet Union will end in failure.

In the past few days Putin has likened himself to a figure from Russia’s past, Peter the Great, to justify his invasion of Ukraine.

I believe his actions better link him with a figure much further back in history, the Eastern Roman Emperor, Justinian I.

This is to accept that Russia is and never was, a nation-state in the Westphalian sense.

Going back to Peter and before, it was always an empire, made up of peoples of different ethnicities, cultures and religions held together by a centralised network of bureaucrats, military and secret police.

This imperial model works as long as most of the population believe it is in their best interests — who can hope to prosper by supporting it. Once that fails it is inevitably prone to disintegration from pressures both within and without.

This was the fate of the Western Roman Empire in the fifth century. Ravaged by internal conflict and ineffectual leadership, it was unable to resist attacks and conquest by invading tribes.

It was the case for the Soviet Union in the 20^th century when Mikhail Gorbachev’s attempts at reform awakened nationalist feelings among previously subservient peoples on its peripheries.

However, as we now enter a new phase, with Putin seeking to restore the Soviet Empire, both in territory and influence — history can once again give us a clue as to the outcome.

In the sixth century the ruler of the remaining Eastern Roman Empire, Justinian I launched a campaign to recover the western provinces and Rome itself in what became known as the last Gothic War.

Justinian’s armies had initial success, but determined resistance and 35 years of prolonged warfare left much of the Italian Peninsula devastated and depopulated.

The Eastern Romans eventually withdrew and much of what had once constituted the Western Empire was lost forever.

Former NATO Secretary General, Lord Robertson of Port Ellen believes Putin has a similar “messianic obsession” to restore the Soviet Empire. Like Justinian, he has been buoyed by early success, snatching back territory from Georgia and the Crimea from Ukraine.

Hubris has turned to rage as the next stage of his victory march has been foiled by Ukrainian resolve. Provinces once hailed as a beloved part of Putin’s motherland are being pounded into dust by his armies.

Russia’s slow advance is over a dystopian wasteland that will take decades to recover.

Even if he succeeds in occupying Ukraine’s south and east and declares victory, he will never know peace. In Ukraine, he has spawned a generation who despise him and all things Russian, and who will work relentlessly to bring him down.

Justinian did not live to see his ambitions in Italy come to nothing, although the vast sums he expended on his attempted reconquest sent the Eastern Empire into a slow but relentless decline.

Putin, approaching 70 and according to consistent reports ailing, may yet suffer the same fate. 

History is a harsh mistress.