The Russia-Ukraine War has produced a plethora of opinion on what it might mean for China’s long-standing ambition to reunite Taiwan with the motherland – by force if necessary.
There were those who believed that with Taiwan’s supporters distracted by the unfolding European crises, now might be an ideal time for Beijing to launch an invasion. Others that the failure of Russia to gain a quick victory against a supposedly much weaker opponent, would give China pause.
Nearly three months into Russia’s ‘Special Military Operation’ China has not shown its hand. Nevertheless, China watcher Neraj Singh Manhas believes the fact that no Western nation has intervened directly to help Ukraine might be an encouragement for Beijing.
Manhas notes that China has grown its military to the point where it is capable of projecting and fighting wars beyond its borders and that its defence spending is now the world’s second largest (though still well behind that of the United States).
“China is also expanding its military infrastructure in the South China Sea and Tibet, indicating a more aggressive posture,” he says.
However, there are other lessons to be taken from Russia’s military adventure, which I am sure are exercising minds at the highest level in Beijing.
For years both Russia and China have gloried over displays of military might at their various celebrations of important anniversaries. We have become used to endless ranks of soldiers marching in perfect step; of sinister parades of tanks, missiles and other weapons of mass destruction.
However, this year’s Victory Day (marking the end of World War II) in Moscow, was not quite so impressive, largely because so many Russian troops were occupied in the trenches of the Donbas, while much of its military machinery was rusting on roads around Kyiv.
While not yet quite a Vietnam-type quagmire, Putin’s original boast of being “in Kyiv in 72 hours” has definitely come back to bite him.
I believe the Russian leader has been left with two choices – put his nation on a total war footing; or seek some form of compromise, which at best, would return the situation to what it was before his February invasion.
Either one would be an admission that his original aim of sweeping all before him in a grand revival of the Russian Empire, was nothing more than an ageing leader’s pipe dream.
Taking all this into consideration, China’s military planners can see parallels. Just as Russia was able to get away with its aggression in Georgia, meddling in Syria and the annexation of Crimea, China has managed to assert itself in Tibet, bully India along its borders and establish island bases in the South China Sea, all with minimum interference from the West.
However, just as Ukraine has been a step too far for Moscow, so could Taiwan be for China. It involves a sea-born invasion across the 150-kilometre Taiwan Strait to meet an opponent that is likely to be just as determined to resist as the Ukrainians have proved.
While the West’s response is unlikely to be as unified as it has been over Ukraine, there is little doubt that at least the US would be ready with supplies of military hardware and other assistance.
In addition, while China’s forces look impressive on the parade ground. They have not fought a major war in more than 40 years.
On a broader issue, Ukraine is proving that massive World War II-style movements of men and machinery to achieve strategic objectives may have had its day. Whatever the outcome of this war, Russia will emerge with its reputation and standing in the world severely reduced.
History may look at it as the last gasp of a failing world power – and that is one path that China does not want to tread.
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