Afghanistan: Beijing is smiling — for now

 Amid the chaos and confusion – now a deadly blast – that has surrounded the hurried withdrawal from Afghanistan there has been undisguised satisfaction in Beijing at what it sees as a humiliation for its rivals in the democratic West.

Unlike the United States, United Kingdom, Australia and other partners in the botched nation-building experiment, China will maintain its embassy in Kabul (as will Russia) while the nation’s media says Chinese authorities are reportedly “looking forward” to strengthening ties with Afghanistan and working with the new Taliban rulers.

There is no doubt the Chinese leadership sees a golden chance to extend its influence in an area dominated by the United States and its allies since the early years of this century, but if recent events are any judge, it is in for some unpleasant surprises.

China has already infiltrated neighbouring Pakistan, a key link in its ambitious One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, but while its activities there have been overshadowed by the rapid disintegration of the Western-back Afghan Government, it has been far from easy going.

In July 13 people, including nine Chinese nationals, were killed when a suicide blast sent a bus plunging into a ravine in the remote northern region of the country.

The bus was carrying Chinese engineers to the site of the Dasu hydroelectric project, a key OBOR investment, and Pakistani authorities later blamed the attack on the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan group.

Then, just a few days ago, a suicide bomber attacked a Chinese motorcade in Baluchistan, injuring one Chinese national and killing two children.

In both cases the Chinese Embassy in Islamabad called on Pakistani authorities to “conduct a thorough investigation and severely punish the perpetrators”.

Good luck with that.

Despite these setbacks next door, reports suggest Beijing is pressing its embassy in Kabul to engage with the Taliban to explore business possibilities.

There is even a Taliban spokesman who has told Chinese media that China could play a role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan.

China knows little to nothing about Afghanistan, but it could take a few lessons from history.

The British, the Russians and now the United States have failed to change the country from its patchwork of often antagonistic fiefdoms and warlords and China will be no different.

The Taliban, holding sway for the moment, regards anyone who does not adhere to its particular Pashtunwali interpretation of Islam to be an infidel and an enemy, especially if they are foreigners who dare to tread the sacred soil of their country.

China, which professes no religion at all, will be seen with particular contempt.

Yes, it is quite possible that in this transition stage, the media-savvy Taliban might like to have some nations onside. China could serve that purpose – for now.

However, if Beijing adopts the same bullying attitude that has been apparent in say Sri Lanka, or hectors local authorities over incidents involving its citizens as it has recently in Pakistan, I suggest it issues its Kabul diplomats with flak jackets and a way of making a fast exit.