EU supporters in danger of a split vote

A few days after results were known in the English local government elections, Prime Minister Theresa May told a conference of Welsh Conservatives: “I think there was a simple message to both us and the Labour Party to just get on and deliver Brexit.”

Really?

At the elections, for local councils of various sizes throughout England, her largely pro-Brexit Conservative Party took a bath, losing 1334 councillors, its worst showing in almost a quarter of a century.

The Opposition Labour Party, which under its leader Jeremy Corbyn has been sitting on the Brexit fence for so long it is in danger of developing haemorrhoids, did not benefit from the Tory disaster, recording a net loss of 82.

The hard-line pro-Brexit UK Independence Party virtually disappeared while the big winners were the staunchly pro-European Liberal Democrats up 703; the Greens, also on a pro-European platform, up 194 and independents who gained 662.

While there are different interpretations that can be put on this result, it would be hard for anyone other than the blinkered Prime Minister to call it a vote for leaving the European Union.

Of course, Brexit apologists have rushed to say that local elections are about local issues such as rubbish bin collections and dogs fouling footpaths, not major national issues — but that would be to deny history.

For generations, voters have used the annual local polls to voice their opinion of the ruling national Government of the day. This is not a good thing, as often well-performing councils are swept away because their membership happens to correspond with that of an unpopular ruling party at Westminster — but it is fact.

Voters took a look at the Conservatives’ inflexible stance on Brexit, and Labour’s prevarication and rejected them both, largely in favour of a party that has been pro-Europe throughout its history.  

On this basis there is a substantial case for a re-think of the entire concept of the UK leaving the European Union.

The 2016 referendum that produced a narrow majority in favour of leaving was held almost three years ago in a different world — before the election of Trump in the United States, before escalating trade wars between the US and China; before Putin in Russia and Xi in China cemented their positions as virtual dictators in their respective countries.

Before anyone considered what to do about the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic; at that time there was little or no debate on the consequences for industry and the effect on the nation’s social fabric.

Back then there was no ‘orderly Brexit’ or ‘no-deal Brexit’, just a gloriously amorphous gilded Brexit that was supposed to lead the UK into a new golden age.

In a recent interview, the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, gave the most clear headed analysis of the 2016 result when he said the decision by then Prime Minister David Cameron to call the vote was a political miscalculation.

“I would expect a different result in a vote today given what we have learned about the consequences of the UK leaving,” Tusk said.

“A real debate about the consequences of Brexit wasn’t had during the referendum campaign, but only after the vote. Paradoxically, Brexit awoke in Great Britain a pro-European movement.”

There is absolutely no doubt that Remainers were asleep at the wheel during the 2016 campaign, and even today the movement is fragmented, with no clear leader such as Brexit champion Nigel Farage.

The next big test comes in elections for the European Parliament later this month in which the UK must participate as it is still formally an EU member.

Brexiteers will fall into line behind Farage, and opinion polls show this is happening with his Brexit Party on 34 per cent of the vote.  A win for his group would be a crippling blow to the hopes of those who want to remain part of Europe and to a second referendum.

In this vote, the two major parties are an irrelevance. May and Corbyn have put ideology and ambition above the national good and refuse to see the tide is turning against them.

However, many Remainers will continue to vote Labour (on 21 per cent) because of Corbyn’s hints at support for a second referendum. Change UK (3 per cent) is also dragging off Remain votes. The Greens (8 per cent) also have mostly Remain support as has the Scottish National Party (4 per cent)

Finally there is there is the party that consistently throughout its history has supported Europe — the Liberal Democrats at 15 per cent.

It would be an absolute tragedy for Remain if their combined vote outpolled Leave, but was split among a plethora of groups that support, or might support, staying in Europe.

A vote to stay part of the European Union must go to the Liberal Democrats.