The resignations of David
Davis and Boris Johnson from the United Kingdom Government front bench leave
the ruling Conservative Party split into three warring factions over its projected
exit from the European Union.
Dominant for the moment are
the pragmatists, led by Prime Minister Theresa May, who will push ahead with
the exit talks, but seek to negotiate a future relationship with the EU that will
involve a free trade area and a “facilitated customs arrangement” removing the need
for checks at the Irish border – the so called Soft Brexit solution.
Left licking their wounds are
the Hard Brexit supporters who want a total break from the EU, nominally led by
Johnson but increasingly dominated by the shadowy back bencher Jacob Rees-Mogg,
who may number as many as 80 within the Parliamentary Party.
Finally, leaderless for the
moment, are around 30 backbenchers who think Brexit is a crazy idea, the result
of a flawed referendum, and would support a ‘people’s vote’ on the final terms
of the deal if they thought there was a chance of it being agreed by Parliament.
During a crisis meeting to
hammer out a final negotiating position with the EU, a majority of the Cabinet
got in behind May, no doubt influenced by a litany of dire warnings from industrial
leaders over their feared consequences of a Hard Brexit.
In the days before the
fateful split carmaker Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) joined a list of United Kingdom
based companies warning that its position may not be viable if the country does
not get a good Brexit deal.
Indian-owned JLR has joined
Airbus, BMW and Siemens in warning they will have to reassess their UK futures
unless the Brexit outcome allows trade to flow freely with Europe, much as it
does now.
Jaguar’s Chief Executive,
Ralf Speth, was essentially speaking for the others when he warned of an
unpredictable future if the Brexit negotiations do not “maintain free and
frictionless trade with the EU and unrestricted access to the single market”.
JLR alone has 40,000
British employees; at stake could be many thousands more jobs and billions of
dollars in investment.
Yet apart from a “f******
business”, comment, Johnson seemed totally unperturbed, vowing to fight what he
called a “bog roll Brexit…soft, yielding and seemingly infinitely long”.
Continuing his scatological
references he apparently called Soft Brexit “polishing a turd” at the Cabinet
meeting before announcing his resignation from the Government.
His apparent willingness to
lead the country into the abyss unnerved many of his colleagues and has
introduced more uncertainty now that he and Davis are free to drum up support
for their cause on the back benches.
So far May’s stress on her
two main Brexit positives — an end to the free movement of people to and from
Europe and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice — have received a
lukewarm response from the hardliners.
Should they decide their
ideology is more important than party loyalty, May will need the support of the
Labour Opposition, where there is strong pro-EU sentiment, to force through
whatever deal she achieves.
In the 19th and early
20th centuries the Liberal Party tore itself apart over the issue of
home rule for Ireland and within a few decades had passed into irrelevance.
Students of history see the Conservatives on the same track in its seemingly
impossible task to find a consensus position on relations with Europe.
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