Something very odd about Afghan poll

Allegations of fraud and ballot-rigging are all too common – almost ritual – after elections in many countries, and there is little doubt something very fishy did occur in Afghanistan’s presidential run-off poll between Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani on June 14.

This second round of the election was needed because no candidate received 50 per cent of the votes cast in the initial poll. That wasn’t surprising as there were eight candidates. However, Abdullah, with 45 per cent of the vote, looked to have a distinct advantage over Ghani, who finished on 31 per cent.

Yet when the preliminary results of the second round were announced, Ghani had raced to 56 per cent and Abdullah had actually lost a percentage point on 44 per cent.

To achieve this Ghani would have had to pick up every single vote from the six candidates who were excluded in addition to getting a few from people who voted for Abdullah first time round.

I suppose it’s not impossible, but highly unlikely – and it certainly adds some credence to Abdullah’s angry accusations of fraud and ballot-rigging.

Fortunately, United States Secretary of State John Kerry has been able to broker a deal whereby the country’s Election Commission will gather the ballot papers in one place and begin an audit. That process is now under way.

It didn’t come a moment too soon as Afghans, newcomers to democracy, were in danger of splitting along old tribal enmities – Abdullah has the support of the Tajiks in the north of the country, while Ghani’s powerbase is among the southern Pashtuns.

Kerry’s initiative appears to be working as the candidates have agreed to abide by the outcome of the recount and there are talks of them cooperating in a Government of National Unity.  

Winston Churchill once said that democracy is a poor form of Government. In my reporting career I can remember the time when atrocious gerrymandering of electoral boundaries denied Northern Ireland’s Catholics, a third of the population, a single seat in the British Parliament; when the slogan “vote early, vote often”, was taken very seriously.

But those problems were fixed – and there is no reason why they cannot be fixed in Afghanistan. Both candidates are cultured, highly-capable men who would be horrified at the thought that their country could slip once again into bloody chaos. They know – and most Afghans know – that the Taliban would be licking their lips at the prospect.

They only have to remember the second part of Churchill’s remark: “…but all the others are so much worse.”