Might not right in South China Sea

China is taking big risks by allowing the state-owned China National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC) to move its most advanced drilling rig into Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone, less than 300 kilometres off the country’s coast.

The outraged reaction from Hanoi and the street demonstrations in major Vietnamese cities were only to be expected. Thirty-nine years after the end of the Vietnam War, this move may push the country closer to its old enemy, the United States. The possibility of reopening the Cam Ranh Bay Naval Base to the US is being openly discussed.

The rig, located near the Paracel Islands which both Vietnam and China claim, is being protected by a large number of vessels, including warships, while Vietnam is sending some of its own forces into the area. An all-out confrontation with China is unlikely, largely because it is one that Hanoi could not possibly win, but a protest to the United Nations over Beijing’s violation of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea is on the cards.

A further, though somewhat unlikely possibility, would be for Vietnam to accept CNOOC is drilling in its area, but try to sue it through the courts for unpaid taxes and duties – a move that Beijing would almost certainly ignore.

China refuses to recognise the right of any third party to intervene in this dispute claiming its sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and surrounding waters comes from centuries of fishing in the area. Its claims are outlined in what is known as the Nine Dash Line, a series of dashes on the map of the South China Sea that extend from the tip of Taiwan, running parallel with the Philippines and Borneo coasts, before turning back up towards and along the coast of Vietnam.

The line encloses about 80 per cent of the South China Sea and is vague enough to take in even more should Beijing arbitrarily decide to join up the dashes.

The fact that Chinese claims in the area are now being backed by naval force is a significant escalation of what is rapidly becoming a major crisis. The Philippines is already locked in dispute with its giant neighbour over the Spratly Islands, and Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore are becoming progressively more alarmed.

Ha Anh Tuan, a PhD candidate in politics and international relations at the University of NSW, says that China can no longer claim its military build-up in recent years is purely for defence and that it will not undermine regional security.

He believes the country may be creating yet another hurdle to its efforts to restructure its economy and sustain its growth.

“Beijing is facing severe domestic challenges, among them deterioration of the environment, an ageing population and separatist movements in Tibet and Xinjiang,” Tuan says.

“In the last few years, terrorist attacks by separatist forces have occurred in major cities, threatening China’s social stability. In addition, Chinese economic growth has shown signs of slowing.”

Tuan says Chinese leaders need a stable international environment so they can concentrate their resources on internal challenges.

Instead, he predicts that concerned South-East Asian nations will seek protection and alliances with countries they will see as a buffer against Chinese expansionism, notably the US, but also Japan and India.  

For years China apologists have been claiming its rise will be peaceful, but its claims for sovereignty over areas that in some cases are almost 1000 kilometres from its mainland suggests a more traditional expansionist policy familiar to anyone who has studied the history of the previous century.