What begins as a relatively minor and peaceful protest draws an unexpected and excessive reaction from authorities; protesters are joined by hundreds of sympathisers, provoking even more aggressive attempts to quash them. Demonstrations grow violent; the rhetoric escalates on both sides as the demonstrators turn their anger on the government itself.
Sounds familiar? Egypt? Libya? Syria?
In fact, this pattern is working itself out in Turkey, a democratic state with long-ingrained secular traditions and until recently regarded as the most westernised of Muslim countries. That mantle appears to be slipping as an increasingly authoritarian Prime Minister appears to have learnt nothing from the massive disruptions to nations on its doorstep.
The problems began less than a month ago when around 100 pro-environment activists began a sit in to protest against a plan to build on an Istanbul park – a fairly routine disagreement which, it was assumed, would be solved by negotiation and compromise.
Instead the police moved in to forcefully remove the protesters using tear gas and water cannon, while Prime Minister Recep Rayyip Erdogan began making bombastic statements about how these kinds of protests would not be tolerated.
Almost at once the ranks of the demonstrators were swelled by thousands of students and other citizens taking to the streets, while unrest spread to other cities. Erdogan responded by ordering an intensification of the crackdown and threatening to call in the army if the police could not to the job.
What has caused this blatant over-reaction by the Prime Minister over what began as a simple example of civil society in action? Some observers blame the weakness of the parliamentary opposition for failing to properly scrutinise Erdogan’s conservative Justice and Development Party Government, allowing the instinctively hard-line leader to develop a messiah complex.
As one demonstrator put it: “Erdogan is behaving like a sultan. He does not listen to anyone or take advice from anyone. He believes he is the font of all wisdom.”
That ‘wisdom’ is taking on a decidedly right-wing bent. Erdogan has described anyone who consumes alcohol as “alcoholics”, has banned kissing in public and tightened censorship laws.
On the plus side his administration has presided over a gradually strengthening economy, with increased foreign investment and lower unemployment and inflation.
No one doubts the Government’s economic credentials, but many Turks are questioning whether greater prosperity has to come hand-in-hand with a whittling away of long-held freedoms.
It is to be hoped that both sides can take the road to compromise. The last thing the international community needs is yet another flashpoint in this troubled part of the world.
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