What has China gained from border stand-off?

The confrontation between China and India in Jammu and Kashmir is over, with both armies agreeing to end the three-week standoff which began when Chinese troops set up a base 19 kilometres inside Indian territory.

The actual border between the two countries in this region has never been settled, but a Line of Actual Control (LAC) has been established and it is the Chinese penetration beyond it that caused the crisis.

Initially the Government in New Delhi tried to play down the incursion, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh calling it a “localised” incident. But the attempt to blame it on a bit of adventurism by a local commander failed during negotiations when the Chinese side constantly said it had to refer back to Beijing.

If the government was trying to smooth things over the Indian public was having none of it and with the affair threatening to become a major political issue, New Delhi’s stance hardened.

The incident came shortly before several high-level contacts were due to take place between the two countries, including a visit by External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid to Beijing later this week and a planned visit to India by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang on May 20.

If the impasse had continued it would almost certainly have meant both these meetings being cancelled, so it could well have been that Beijing was testing the water to see how far India was prepared to go to save them.

Perhaps now it has its answer. China has long protested over military activity on the Indian side of the LAC, including the building of permanent fortifications. While there has been no release on the final agreement that led to the Chinese withdrawal, observers are speculating that it included the fortifications being dismantled or at least a halt on them being extended further.

The border between India and China has been a bone of contention for decades. Talks to resolve the issue have dragged on without any sign of resolution and amid fears that China coverts large swathes of Indian territory.

New Delhi is now pinning hopes on the visit by Li being an opportunity to make progress towards a settlement but other sources predict that if the Chinese Premier has a proposal it will involve territorial concessions unacceptable to an Indian Government now just a year away from a general election.