China concerns behind diplomatic double talk

United States Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Edgard Kagan was at the Australian National University yesterday to deliver an address on US Engagement with the Pacific Islands and the Region.

It was largely a restatement of established American policy – the US was focused on expanding its position in the region; it had strategic and moral interests there and intended to pursue them more vigorously in the future.

Even during some pointed questions on West Papua and Fiji, Kagan tended to duck behind the traditional rhetoric. The US would continue its warm relationship with Indonesia and through that restate its position on human rights, leaving it to the country’s developing democracy to do the rest.

On Fiji, he took a slightly stronger position: The US had a strained relationship with the current regime and was waiting to see whether the Fijian Government’s rhetoric about an eventual transition to democracy would match its deeds.

And to China – it was a “complex relationship – we encourage China to play a bigger role in the world”. However that role had to be one that promoted peace and stability.

Sometimes with these events it is necessary to read not just between the lines, but between what is between the lines. In diplomatic speak “complex” can mean very unsatisfactory, perhaps even antagonistic. “Encouraging” China to play a bigger role in the world that promotes peace and stability means that its current role is unlikely to do that.

The US is in a power struggle with China in the Asia Pacific. China is seeking to extend its influence in what it considers to be its own backyard, which is hardly unreasonable unless it begins to aggressively promote its values and political system; then we have trouble.

Fiji is a case in point. Suspension from the Commonwealth and the Pacific Islands Forum is less of a problem for Commodore Frank Bainamarama if China wants to be his friend – and of course China has no problem with the fact that Commodore Bainamarama is a military dictator. It might even encourage him to retain his grip on the nation and continue his game  of moving political reform back into the far distance.

Success with Fiji could open the way for bigger fish – Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, maybe even Indonesia.

There was one point where I thought Kagan’s carefully manufactured guard slipped just a little. While answering a question about whether Russia still had a significant role to play in the Asia Pacific, he urged his listeners to look beyond China when they considered the region.

“The rise of Asia Pacific is not just a China story, there is ASEAN, the continuing role of Japan, Korea and India,” he said.

The point being that with a couple of exceptions, these nations are either democracies, or tending towards democracy, and that overwhelmingly, they support the US presence in the region as a counterbalance to the growing influence of Beijing.

Kagan said he was optimistic about future developments in the Asia Pacific and, of course, it is the duty of diplomats to be optimistic, in public at least.

But even optimists have to be prepared for the worst.