Missed chances on the Korean peninsula

It seems the West has lost the chance to ease North Korea out of its Stalinist straightjacket.

Earlier this year I wrote an article in On Line Opinion suggesting that with the accession of Kim Jong-un to the leadership there might open a window of opportunity to promote reform http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=13616

This was not based on any fanciful notion Kim, with his background of study in Switzerland and his apparent liking for Walt Disney characters, was going to lead a movement out of the shadows, but that there might be others in the Pyongyang who could be encouraged to do so.

The theory was that if Kim, still in his late 20s, became entrenched in power, it was likely to be another 40 years at least before another change in leadership, something that might exercise the minds of others in the North Korean hierarchy who would like to see a move towards a more accommodating stance to the outside world in their lifetimes.

However, it appears policymakers in Western capitals have put too much faith in Kim himself – that the fact he likes fast food outlets, mini-skirts and American basketball meant he was ready to open North Korea to the world and perhaps even abandon his reckless policy of intimidation against his closest neighbours.

It was quite obvious earlier this year when North Korea negotiated a food-for-nuclear-missile-freeze with the United States and then almost immediately launched a test missile that it was business as usual. The Obama Administration immediately cancelled the deal perpetuating the one-step-forward-one-step-back situation that has existed for decades.  

So if the opportunity for some quiet undermining of Kim’s nascent regime has been lost, what next? The signs are that South Korea is losing patience with the continual provocations from the North which in recent times has torpedoed a South Korean navy ship and shelled an island with the loss of civilian and military lives.

The South Korean command structure is outraged by these acts and wants a re-write of the rules of engagement to allow a more aggressive reaction than occurred after these incidents. An election in December is quite likely to result in an administration more sympathetic to these attitudes. The possibility of an all-out war cannot be discounted.

In the meantime floods and famine continue to ravage North Korea, food shortages are worsening, and Kim perpetuates the methods employed by his father and grandfather of removing anyone who is a threat, or a perceived threat, to his regime.

There may yet be people within the palace guard who are sickened by these antics and are prepared to act, but the chances of this happening are lessening by the day.